British Columbians can expect a small decline in average home prices in 2012 on the heels of a moderating of home sales in the province’s biggest markets, RBC Economics said Thursday.
In its latest forecast update, RBC said it expects the average B.C. home price to slip 1.6 per cent to $576,700 in 2012 following a run-up in average prices that has been skewed by more dramatic price increases in pockets of Metro Vancouver.
That will follow 2011, which should end with the provincial average price up 5.7 per cent to $586,000 by the end of the year.
RBC senior economist Robert Hogue said it represents “the unwinding of some of that unusual increase since the start of this year.”
Hogue said resales in the Metro Vancouver market have been trending down somewhat since the start of the year as has the overall ratio of home sales to homes listed for sale.
“Those are not pointing in the direction of strong price increases, yet we’ve seen very significant increases,” Hogue said. “We think this is not really sustainable.”
He added that the decline in Vancouver average prices will likely be larger, but RBC does not extend its forecast to the city level.
The major Canadian banks all have different forecasts for Vancouver real estate.
I see the markets that the PRC buy into undergoing a price correction and I see a flat market for the Local Vancouver real estate market