Are Vancouver housing prices ready to fall?
BMO Capital Markets has published a new report, “A Tale of Three Housing Markets“, which raises this spectre.
“Riding a wave of wealthy immigrants, Vancouver’s house prices have nearly tripled in the past decade, spiralling beyond the reach of most first-time buyers or non-lottery winners,” writes senior economist Sal Guatieri. “Demand from China reportedly has been strong, stoked by looser travel restrictions, stricter purchase rules and lofty house prices in China.”
That has pushed up the average home price in Vancouver to 11.2 times the median family income—more than double the ratio of a decade ago.
The report points out that the preceding valuation is based on the average price, which has been distorted by a “reported shift in sales to high-end homes in the past year”. (This phenomenon was recently addressed by the Urban Futures Institute.)
In Toronto, the average home is 6.7 times the median family income, whereas in Calgary, it’s only 4.2 times the median family income.
BMO Capital Markets notes that a survey by Demographia listed Vancouver as the third least affordable housing market behind Hong Kong and Sydney.
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